Business as usual should be over

History is delineated by rare moments when the world collectively bears witness to something, the times when we all come to a halt together. Chamberlain’s declaration of war, the Cuban missile crisis, the Moon landing, Tiananmen Square, the Challenger explosion, 911. And yet for many, the last few weeks have felt like one never-ending collective moment; a giant, global car crash unfolding in slow motion with no end in sight.

Over 4.76 million people have been officially confirmed as COVID-19 patients, with more falling prey even as you read this sentence. Is there any other scenario under which it could be more difficult for the world to think about its collective future? That said, as we leave our quarantine caves in varying time frames we all have an unprecedented opportunity (if not a responsibility) to help shape the world we want to emerge into.

Like it or not, the world has changed; COVID-19 has had devastating immediate consequences but also carries long-term ones, the second and third-order effects of which will be felt for years. Business as usual is over. Societal divisions will deepen, new schisms will emerge, things once deemed necessary will be obsolete, and erstwhile niceties will be the new necessities. And all of this will take place against a new backdrop, that of collective capitalism.

Choosing a Braver New World

Against Alphas and Deltas

If we do not want to be thrust into Huxley’s dystopian novel, we have to act now. The white-collared workforce’s increasing likelihood to work from home was a rising trend before COVID-19, and the growth curve has turned vertical as a result of the pandemic with Vox stating flat out, “According to a new MIT report, 34% of Americans who previously commuted to work report that they were working from home by the first week of April due to the Coronavirus. That’s the same percentage of people who can work from home, according to a recent University of Chicago publication.” 

But what about everyone else?  

As reported by The New York Times, those of lower income levels were already being forced to return to normal movement soon after the lockdown began - whether it be job-related or due to the need to take public transport. Low income, increased movement, and increased infection rates have been observed to have a causal relationship in New York City's Boroughs. As socioeconomic divides are widened due to this disease, an interesting phenomenon has begun to emerge: those among the privileged minority able to work remotely are forced to recognize the risks taken by those who deliver their groceries, and their mail or have dedicated their careers to the healthcare sector. While these groups were previously taken for granted, worldwide nightly applause for healthcare workers has become commonplace, and both personal finance and etiquette experts are weighing in to state that those who have the privilege of staying at home and receiving deliveries should acknowledge the risks taken by their drivers and tip them more. How do we cement this with social policy? Has Universal Basic Income finally found its era? Doesn’t America’s healthcare system fail us all if it fails some?

The final division that potentially lies ahead is that of immunity. The World Health Organization has published a brief regarding “immunity passports,” and billionaire Mark Cuban has gone as far as to patent the idea of "immunity identifiers" to prevent the human-rights abuse such a division could create. 

If we want to avoid increasing the injustice in the world, we must demand that physical and economic protections are in place for the blue-collar workers and the non-immune. We must rewrite the basic list of human rights. After all, what kind of world do we want to emerge into?

Business is Personal

While Coronavirus has primarily magnified divisions, it has been a leveler within corporate hierarchies. Paradoxically, social distancing has brought us closer together than ever. Like it or not, Zoom puts the whole person in frame; we are all a potential BBC Dad as our children, pets, and microwave-using significant others are on display. Women who previously chose not to put pictures of their kids in their office (so as not to let their maternal status be used against them) are likely silently celebrating each time that top-level executives are interrupted by their children.

This new paradigm of working from home will open up more opportunities. New and not-so-new mothers could find it easier to return to work. Remote work also allows folks outside the traditional urban hubs to access jobs previously out of reach. In addition, financial experts are warning that opening the job market up to out-of-work Boomers will be a key element to the economy’s return to growth. 

Sticky Habits and their Consequences

Our Shiny, New Habits

Every crisis has lasting effects. As BCG has noted, World War II led to a wave of women joining and staying in the workforce, 9/11 led to lasting, stricter aviation regulations and SARs catalyzed the increase in e-commerce that enabled giants like Alibaba to rise to power. We must, therefore, ask ourselves, what are the behavior changes that have already been set in motion and which of them can we expect to remain after the crisis subsides?

In their post-COVID consumer study, Ernst & Young predicts that only 35% of consumers will espouse a long-term commitment to frugality or cost-cutting. So, if 65% of consumers are expected to return to previous or higher consumption levels, what will they be buying? What are the second and third-order consequences of this new behavior set?

Long-Term Consequences

Before COVID-19, we could have hypothesized about consumer behavior in such a future state all we wanted, but predictions would have remained just that, predictions. Now, as a plethora of future-state scenarios become our present day, we are witnessing a global social experiment in real-time which provides an unprecedented opportunity to posit real, new trends from inside of the petri dish.

Nicety or necessity?

As mentioned previously, working from home has skyrocketed, and while that has had important effects on social structures, it also has significant implications on consumption. What will the Financial Districts of our global cities look like? Will office buildings go the way of the warehouse and become repurposed, hip places to live? How will people separate their work life from their home life when both occur in the same setting? The trend that seems to be overarching, regardless of category, is that things previously deemed as nice to have become necessary. According to Wirecutter, “Standing desks, computer monitors, ergonomic office chairs, quality webcams, have all seen interest and sales soar.” Will we list houses by the number of bedrooms, bathrooms, and offices?

On the other side of the equation, services that were previously perceived as indispensable are suffering massively. Spending on Uber’s rides dropped about 83 percent in March, Airbnb is in crisis, WeWork has continued its fall from grace, the airline industry is hurting and facing massive change, and public transit systems are looking at potential doom nationwide. The foundations of our global society are being tested, and it’s uncertain how many of these previously critical services will retain that status after the dust settles. 

While new behaviors in some categories are here to stay, the behavior change of reduced mobility that has so benefited the environment faces a greater challenge. As our reliance on oil has plummeted, so have our global emissions. Skies the world over are clearer than they’ve been in decades. Could the pandemic be the drastic sort of event that was needed to drive collective excitement about the real potential we have to save our planet? Only if we act now and introduce policies for economic incentives or taxation to keep consumption low can we finally give nature a future by hooking it to the new collective capitalism. 

Collective Capitalism is Here

More than a Purpose

The necessity of building a company with purpose is not a new concept. Many multi-billion dollar brands have been created by using their purpose as a key differentiator, and purpose-driven brands have been measured to be dramatically more successful than their counterparts. The case has been made many times over that today’s consumer demands a brand that has a purpose, but has the advent of COVID-19 raised expectations beyond this?

Operationalizing good

Stalwarts of purpose branding have doubled down during this crisis. Companies like Patagonia, who voluntarily closed all factories and stores completely on March 16th and vowed to pay its employees, and Dove, who donated soap, educated consumers, and honored healthcare workers, rose above the fray of their tone-deaf counterparts who continued to push their people until the last minute of imposed regulations (or beyond), or continued to message in the same way as they were before the shutdown. 

Relatively new players in the purpose game have also fully operationalized their purpose; productivity software supplier Asana has offered free use of its platform to teams fighting COVID-19, and Microsoft has built a bot for the CDC that helps to screen patients for potential COVID-19 infections - eliminating bottlenecks in call centers in the process, and HP is donating massive amounts of 3D printing software and hardware to help print parts to ease medical supply shortages. 

Consumer demand for better corporate behavior is also reaching new highs. As per Edelman’s Trust Barometer, “There is unanimity across markets (90% globally) that people want brands to do everything they can to protect the well-being and financial security of their employees and suppliers, even if it means substantial financial losses until the pandemic ends.” 

Unusual Business

The work of rebuilding will be an unusual business. Brands will have to decide if they are for the blue-collared or the white-collared or if they are game to try to meaningfully bridge the gap. Workplaces will have to accept the irreversible integration of the personal and the professional or risk losing valuable talent. Companies will be able to reposition to take advantage of new habits and recover from the sudden loss of old ones. And above all, regardless of sector, size, or business model only brands with a purpose that is fully operationalized will get traction in the new economic era.