America is ready for the rise of the robots.
America is ready for the rise of the robots.
Much has been written about humanity’s dark fascination with artificial intelligence and the collective fear of robot malevolence. The likes of Hal and The Terminator have cast long and looming shadows on our culture for decades, but here at Register we would argue that Americans are more in need of, and open to, AI and Robotics than you might think.
How do we know this? In 2019 and again in 2022, we surveyed thousands of Americans to understand their comfort levels with AI and Robotics. We looked at 26 different use cases, ranging from the mundane (AI/Robot House Cleaner, Package Deliverer, Chef) to the mischievous (AI/Robot Pet, Therapist, Friend, Sex Partner) to the downright macabre (‘Cyborg human/robot merger,’ and ‘Uploading my brain online so it lives on after my death’). In both years, the samples were weighted to reflect the US Census and were large enough to analyze the data by gender, political affiliation, job type, ethnicity, and, of course, age. You can see the TED Talk on our 2019 study here, but the 2022 data is now in and, frankly, it’s fascinating.
The gray line in the chart below shows the general population’s level of comfort with the 26 AI/Robot use cases in 2019, the black line shows the comfort level in 2022, and the red line shows Millennials’ 2022 comfort levels (Millennials were by far the most comfortable generation of all five that we surveyed).
Innovations in AI and Robotics represent a massive opportunity for humanity and could positively transform all aspects of our lives.
As you can see, opinions are changing rapidly. As of 2022, most Americans are now comfortable with five of the 26 scenarios, and Millennials are comfortable with eight. If the current rate of change just persists (rather than accelerates, as tech adoption curves generally do), then by 2032, most Americans will welcome AI/Robot assistance in all 26 use cases surveyed. Innovations in AI and Robotics represent a massive opportunity for humanity and could positively transform all aspects of our lives. The coming robot renaissance will impact how humans care for others, how we work, the quantity and quality of our leisure time, and our physical and mental health.
So, in this article, for each of these four areas (care, work, time, and health), we’ll look into the current unmet needs and emergent AI/Robot applications and discuss the future opportunities and some of the dilemmas.
In the category of care, Americans were generally less comfortable with the idea of an AI/Robot nurse, doctor, elder care, or child care in 2019 than the other, less high-stakes use cases. However, when you cut the data by age, a different picture emerges; the sandwich generations (Gen Xers and Millennials, who are more likely to be jointly caring for both their children and aging parents) show an increased comfort level with AI/Robot care in 2022 vs. 2019. We imagine that the sudden and prolonged closure of schools, the virus’ horrific rampage through nursing homes, and the explosion of Telehealth were huge contributors to this great opening of minds over the last three years.
AI and Robotics are already used in caretaking today, from avoiding patient falls to mitigating nurse burnout. And the need here is very real; the World Health Organization estimates that there will be 1.4B people over 60 in the world by 2030, which will mean a deficit of at least 6M nurses. But herein lies a dilemma. When compared to having a human nurse, having a nurse like Hanson Robotic’s Grace seems to us to be very problematic and (literally) inhuman, but I think that this comparison is the wrong framing.
Imagine if skilled human nurses could dispatch Grace to follow up and check on their patients or alert them to problems before they become crises. Indeed, rather than rejecting AI and Robotics, nursing organizations recognize the exponential potential of this technology. One of the key conclusions of a study published in late 2020 by The American Nurses Association was: “Robots assisting nurses in providing patient care is something with which technology can help us, not as a replacement, but rather as a force multiplier.” We do not believe that the future will be binary, not human or robot, but instead human x robot, with AI expanding the reach and impact of each human career.
Imagine if skilled human nurses could dispatch Grace to follow up and check on their patients or alert them to problems before they become crises. Indeed, rather than rejecting AI and Robotics, nursing organizations recognize the exponential potential of this technology. One of the key conclusions of a study published in late 2020 by The American Nurses Association was: “Robots assisting nurses in providing patient care is something with which technology can help us, not as a replacement, but rather as a force multiplier.”
In addition to elder care, a new field of artificial intelligence and robotics is emerging, focused on children. AI and Robotics are already being used to improve motor skills in toddlers, provide emotional assistance to children with autism, and keep a second eye on kids while parents work from home. We’re pretty sure that the concept of a second - or heck, even third - set of eyes is one that many overwhelmed parents would welcome.
The second area that AI/Robotics will impact is work. First, when we look at professional services, comfort levels with an AI/Robot lawyer, financial advisor, and even teacher are all on the rise. According to the American Bar Association, AI is already a vital tool in reducing menial tasks within the law (such as document analysis, research, and contract drafting). It is also being used to predict legal outcomes and (more problematically for some) to recommend sentencing or bail terms. Regarding education, AI and robotics are currently used to teach STEM classes, but the prediction is that they will expand to other teaching areas too. Now, in General Education classrooms (despite many states' efforts to stem rising class sizes by enacting class size limits), an over-taxed and significantly underpaid teacher base means the opportunity for 1:1 tutoring, one of the most effective forms of instruction, is low. Just as with nurses, in my opinion, the ethical and best use case here would be as a multiplier; a human teacher’s lesson could be reinforced by individualized, customized AI/Robot tutoring. Imagine the impact on teacher retention and morale and student mastery and graduation rates if we not only limited class sizes but raised teachers' pay and gave them each a whip-smart AI assistant.
Beyond white-collar service jobs, AI/Robots will protect and elevate the entire blue-collar labor force. Even today, manual labor is unacceptably dangerous, with over one thousand workers dying in construction in 2020 alone. AI/Robots can and should do the jobs that currently put lives at risk, and, in so doing, they can transform blue-collar workers' lives.
Consulting firm Cognizant summarizes this opportunity in their excellent white paper, The Renaissance of Blue Collar Work, stating, “In these traditionally manual-labor-heavy environments, newly empowered workers don’t just carry out routine, physical tasks....armed with the ability to exploit data, analytics, or machine learning, they’re equipped to add value in new and innovative ways.” These new collar workers can learn new skills that would reduce the risks of their day-to-day work and increase their job satisfaction, resulting in both longer tenure and higher pay. Our research also shows that attitudes are shifting. In 2019, blue-collar workers’ concern about job loss due to AI and Robotics was greater than their excitement about AI and Robotics, but by 2022, the opposite was true.
The fact is that America is desperate for more blue-collar workers. According to The Chamber of Commerce, as of September 2022, 50% of durable goods and manufacturing jobs, 60% of hospitality and leisure jobs, and a whopping 70% of wholesale and retail trade positions in the US were unfilled. AI/Robots can help level the playing field regarding seniority, satisfaction, and salary between blue and white-collar workers. As one of our survey respondents predicted:
The third area of unmet need is time. Or rather, our lack of it. The pandemic highlighted our lack of work/life balance and reset our priorities. As more Americans worked from home, many set new boundaries for hours they were willing to let work take up. And, given that houses that are more occupied generate more chores, Americans' new focus on how they choose to spend their time means they are beyond ready for help. ‘House cleaning’ was the most popular use case we surveyed in 2019, with over 60% of Americans saying they were comfortable with AI/Robots in this setting, and in 2022, that increased to 71%. Indeed, Americans’ interest levels in AI/Robots that help with cleaning, cooking, serving, and even dog-walking increased in the 2022 study. There is a reason Amazon just paid $1.7B for iRobot, who recently shipped their 40 millionth Roomba. In addition, hours spent outside the home behind the wheel are increasingly under question; post-pandemic, 1 in 3 Americans are comfortable with the idea of a driverless car without human backup, which is a giant leap from just 23% in 2019.
The last area is that of health. In the aftermath of the pandemic, the US Surgeon General has warned of a crisis that the New York Times has dubbed the “inner pandemic.” Given the prolonged stress levels of the last three years, suicide attempts, eating disorders, and depression are on the rise, especially among our youngest Americans. And yet, half of American counties lack a single psychiatrist, and those that do have them face an aging base; 60% of current psychiatrists are 55 and over.
“We have a chronic shortage of psychiatrists, and it’s going to keep growing,” says Saul Levin, MD, CEO and medical director of the American Psychiatric Association. “People can’t get care. It affects their lives, their ability to work, to socialize, or even to get out of bed.” Telehealth has helped here of course, but we would argue that AI can help too. 27% of Americans are open to the idea of an AI/Robot therapist, rising to 1 in 3 millennials. And Google is already using AI to analyze the language of search to help prevent suicide. However, when a struggling teen today uses search terms related to depression or self-harm on TikTok or Instagram, they are (maddeningly) served pro-harm posts that drive them further down the rabbit hole. It’s time to enact legislation that makes developing a proactive AI to protect our kids mandatory when operating a social media platform. How many lives would be saved if we could identify at-risk teens help before it is too late?
In addition to self-harm, loneliness is acknowledged to be an American public health emergency. In a recent study, 36% of respondents reported severe loneliness—feeling lonely “frequently” or “almost all the time or all the time.” No wonder then that one-third of Americans are open to an AI/Robot pet or friend. So far, robotic pets have seen the most success and impact in elder care settings, but with their proven clinical results, in our opinion the potential goes way beyond seniors. And, in what will predictably be the next sin stock to watch, 23% of Americans and 1 in 3 millennials are comfortable with the idea of an AI/Robot sex partner. Thanks in part, we are sure, to Westworld, this number rises to 43% for millennial men.
And finally, it seems the Terminator’s shadow may be lightening; a third of Americans are comfortable with becoming a cyborg, and over a quarter are comfortable uploading our brains so we can live on after death. And yes, in case you were wondering, over half of millennial men are comfortable with either of these.
In conclusion, our study shows that America is increasingly ready for the rise of robots. From extra hours of leisure time, to safer days at work, to increased years in good health, to lives saved, the impact of AI and Robotics on humanity’s time on this planet will be vast.
One of our study participants put it very eloquently: “I see AI as an opportunity to improve decision making and improving (sic) outcomes. I see the ability to use AI to do dangerous work that will save human lives, to help humans work smarter, not harder." It’s past time for robots, and humans with them, to rise.